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Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
FORECASTING AGGREGATE PRODUCTIVITY USING INFORMATION FROM FIRM-LEVEL DATA
Beteiligte:
Bartelsman, Eric J.;
Wolf, Zoltan
Erschienen:
The MIT Press, 2014
Erschienen in:
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 96 (2014) 4, Seite 745-755
Sprache:
Englisch
ISSN:
1530-9142;
0034-6535
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
<p>In this paper, we explore whether information from firm-level data can improve forecasts of aggregate productivity growth. We generate firm-level productivity measures and aggregate them into time-series components that capture within-firm productivity and the productivity contribution of reallocation. We show that these components improve aggregate total factor productivity forecasts in a simple univariate setting, even when firm-level data are available with a time lag. Lagged firm-level information also improves aggregate productivity forecasts when we combine results from a variety of different multivariate forecasting models using Bayesian model averaging techniques.</p>