Anmerkungen:
Veröffentlichungsversion
begutachtet (peer reviewed)
In: Revista Mexicana de Estudios Electorales ; 4 (2020) 23 ; 157-202
Beschreibung:
The objective of this essay is to analyze the polls conducted before the twenty four elections for local executives (Governors or Government's Head) in Mexico in the period of 2016-2018, by comparing their estimates against the results, using tools of political, statistical and demoscopic analysis. This exercise of joint evaluation of polls, never before done, provides many surprises that make it necessary to question old assumptions and risk new explanatory hypotheses about the reasons that favor accuracy in measurements; provisional hypotheses that must be compared with the data that bring new electoral events. In a central way, the results force to assume that the competition format in each election is the determining factor in the accuracy observed by the polls.