Beschreibung:
This paper has developed nine scenarios about the international system where differences and variable trends offer some new insight and opportunities in how maritime violence could develop. (...) Piracy follows economic interests, terrorism follows political interests. However sometimes these paths cross: Politicians desperate for enrichment or criminals looking for political influence. The three main regions, Sub Sahara Africa, South East Asia and South America and the adjacent oceans show different constellations as a prerequisite for political or economical motivated maritime violence. It is necessary to establish a regional and local analysis of the situation in the coming two decades, as this could help gain more information about the characteristics of potential perpetrators. This could be of benefit as it would lead to an early warning alarm which could then lead to the most effective way to deal with the challenge ahead. (ISZA/Pll)